Blair, Damaged by Role in Iraq War, Faces Judgment on Character

Four months after British and American soldiers invaded Iraq in 2003, U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair received a gold medal and standing ovation from the U.S. Congress as he pledged, You're not going to be alone.'' To Americans, Blair, 51, is the most stalwart of allies, winning him popularity ratings that any U.S. politician would envy -- 76 percent in a November 2003 Gallup poll. At home, it's another story. Critics deride him as untrustworthy, and taunt him as President George W. Bush'spoodle.’’ Most damaging, a 2004 government inquiry found serious flaws'' in the Blair dossier that argued for war on the basis of an imminent threat from Iraq. The doubts about Blair have swelled into an issue of public trust as he and his Labour Party start their campaign to win a third straight term in the May 5 election. More than recent British elections, this one will be fought on the issue of character -- Tony Blair's character.It is a credibility issue,’’ says David Howell of Guildford, 69, a Conservative member of the House of Lords and a shadow foreign-affairs minister. He personally is in real trouble over his general reputation for dodginess.'' A January poll conducted by MORI, a London-based research firm, found that 57 percent of British voters described Blair asuntrustworthy.’’ Asked if the prime minister is a political asset, Peter Kilfoyle, a Labour Member of Parliament and former defense minister, pauses for a moment, then answers, Pass.'' Considerable Strengths Blair enters the campaign with some considerable strengths. Labour's 161-seat majority in the 659-member House of Commons is so large that it would take a huge swing among voters to oust the party. And Blair has overseen what Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown describes as the longest continuous economic expansion since 1701.By putting the economy at the center of this debate, we will argue that our policies since 1997, which have been opposed by the Conservatives at every stage, were the right decisions and continue to be the right decisions,’’ says Brown, 54. People won't want to take risks with the stability we have created.'' The U.K.'s economy is forecast to grow by 3 percent to 3.5 percent this year, double the 1.6 percent pace that the European Commission predicts for the 12 nations sharing the euro. And as low as Blair's personal ratings have fallen -- a March MORI poll found that only 34 percent of respondents were satisfied with his record, down from 75 percent in September 1997 -- his chief opponent, Conservative leader Michael Howard, is even more unpopular. The MORI poll found that only 31 percent would be satisfied with Howard as prime minister. `Issue of Trust'Blair is still very much in the negative zone, down where party leaders can lose elections,’’ says Harold Clarke, a professor at the University of Texas at Dallas and author of the 2004 book Political Choice in Britain.''Luckily for him, the leaders of the other parties are down there with him.’’

The Conservatives are likely to focus on Blair’s character, partly because they also backed the invasion of Iraq and support Britain’s special relationship'' with the U.S.It comes down to an issue of trust,’’ Howard, 63, said in a March 10 parliamentary debate on a terrorism bill. Can we trust Mr. Blair, the man who gave us the dodgy dossier, to put Britain's interests first? The answer is, `We cannot.''' Differing Images The difference between Blair's image abroad and perceptions of him in Britain is striking, says Kevin Theakston, a historian and professor of British government at the University of Leeds.In some ways, Blair is seen to best effect abroad,’’ Theakston says. At home he seems to be hesitant and indecisive, as if he doesn't know what he wants to achieve. Internationally, he has cast himself in a bigger, bolder way, as a kind of pathfinder.'' Blair, who became Labour leader in 1994 at the age of 41, won landslide general-election victories in 1997 and 2001 on platforms promising better public services without rolling back the pro- market legacy of Margaret Thatcher, the Conservative prime minister from 1979 to 1990. Taking office after 18 years of Conservative rule, Blair -- the youngest British prime minister since Lord Liverpool in 1812 - - pledged a new relationship between government and the people, based on more accountability. He experimented with public-private partnerships to rebuild deteriorating public facilities, such as railways and roads, and to improve education, health and postal services. The National Health Service, for example, uses companies including UnitedHealth Group Inc., the second-biggest U.S. health insurer, to help reduce waiting lists. Moving to the Center As Labour leader, Blair has tried to bring the party to the center of the political spectrum, steering a course between free- market capitalism and the party's traditional preference for state- supported socialism. Voters in Britain, as in the U.S., have proved to be impatient with the slow pace of suchthird way’’ politics, says Sidney Blumenthal, an adviser to former President Bill Clinton who now writes a column for the Guardian, a British newspaper.

Like a Democratic president, a Labour prime minister has a very difficult time selling incremental change,'' Blumenthal says.Even when they achieve it — say, cutting the wait for an operation with the National Health Service from 18 months to 6 months — it comes slowly, and electorates are not necessarily grateful.’’

Realism vs Idealism

Blair has also backed away from campaign promises in ways that have undercut his image as a fresh political force. He backtracked on pledges to keep British universities tuition-free and to turn the House of Lords into a democratically elected body, and watered down the Freedom of Information Act, which took effect in January.

We haven't relinquished our idealism, but now it is tempered by realism,'' he told the Labour Party's spring conference in Gateshead on Feb. 13. The issue that has most fueled doubts about his leadership is Iraq, and his decision to stand by Bush. Blair rested his case for war on Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's purported possession of weapons of mass destruction, and cited claims that Iraq's chemical and biological weapons could be deployed within 45 minutes. The failure to find any such weapons in Iraq still reverberates, says Tam Dalyell, 72, a Labour Member of Parliament and the longest-serving member of the House of Commons. CredibilityHis credibility is at the center of the campaign because he took this country to war on the basis of something which he knew not to be true,’’ Dalyell says. A government committee investigating the claims in the 2002 dossier found that Blair had used unreliable information, including the 45-minute claim, but exonerated him of any deliberate falsehood.

I understand why some people feel angry, not just over Iraq but many of the difficult decisions we have made,'' Blair said at the Gateshead conference.And, as ever, a lot of it is about me.’’

Many of Blair’s party members are trying to shift attention away from him personally, and focus more on their achievements. This is not about personalities,'' says Kilfoyle, 58, who represents Liverpool Walton, a Labour stronghold.It will, for me, be an election about the domestic record, and certainly not the mistakes that have been made in foreign policy.’’

Yet it’s in foreign policy where Blair appears to rise above politics, act decisively and find his own voice, says Samuel Beer, 93, Eaton Professor of Government emeritus at Harvard University and author of Modern British Politics.'' European RelationsFor years, people would ridicule him for having his finger in the wind,’’ says Beer. And then, lo and behold, this Iraq thing came along, and he defies public opinion,'' Theakston at the University of Leeds describes Blair, who in addition to backing the Iraq invasion also advocated the use of force in Kosovo in 1998, as a mix of Winston Churchill and liberal 19th-century Prime Minister William Gladstone. Theakston, author of a 2004 book on Churchill, says Blair combines Gladstone's moral convictions with Churchill's belief in military strength. Blair has also gone against the grain of British public opinion by seeking a closer relationship with the European Union. He has committed the U.K. to greater integration with the EU's defense initiative and favors adoption of its constitution. At the same time, as the British economy outperformed the euro region, Blair has muted his call for adopting the joint currency.He is not willing to take on the doubters, the media and the euro-skeptics,’’ Theakston says, noting that on this issue, as on others, history has yet to pass its verdict on Blair.

Blair has been an immensely dominant figure in British politics for the last 10 years, which brings to mind someone like Mrs. Thatcher,'' he says.Yet I don’t think it is clear that his strategy is as well defined. He has been a successful party leader, and a very successful campaigner. It is not clear that he has radically transformed British society.’’

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