Putin: The twilight of the last tsar

Perestroika (Перестройка) was a term coined during the reign of Gorbachev to define "a reform process based on the restructuring of the economy with the aim to reform and preserve the outdated system and give socialiesta Soviet society a certain spirit of enterprise and innovation. " This process, also accompanied by a faltering democratization of political life, led to profound socioeconomic changes that led to the Gorbachev era, the subsequent collapse and disintegration of the USSR and the enthronement of economic globalization with Yeltsin.
The FSB, which employed 75,000 people, was established on April 12, 1995 by a Yeltsin decree-law to replace the Federal Intelligence Service (FSK) (agency had temporarily replaced the KGB in December 1993) Adding to the powers of the FSK internal security tasks assumed by the KGB (the fight against organized crime and terrorism, as well as monitoring all matters relating to nuclear safety and production of strategic minerals) and appointed the 2000 as a stranger Director Vladimir Putin in place of Nikolai Kovalyov.
Putin, Russia’s new strongman: Until the shocking slaughter of Beslan (known as 3-S), the Russian secret services were languishing between remnants of the defunct Cold War, but in the basement of the FSB, Putin with their environment known as the KGB cronies, "was forging a true virtual coup that would have its trigger in the assault and subsequent killing of the school in Beslan (North Ossetia), action attributed to a mixture of Chechen and Ingush, setting up "the fight against Chechen terrorism" as the leitmotiv the mandate of the new strong man of Russia, Vladimir Putin and Shamil Basayev and Magomedali being Vagabov as paradigms of the new policy of "neutralization" of the Putin era,, having been either killed by Special Forces National Counterterrorism Committee (NAK) .
In 2004, Putin approved the reform of the intelligence services prior to the creation of a powerful Ministry of State Security in Russia that would include the FSB with SVR (responsible for overseas operations), and got the defenestration of the original ruling class from the Yeltsin era (oligarchs), corrupt clique mafia equivalent of a mini-state within the Russian state and that 36% of large wealth concentrated in their hands the equivalent of 25% of GDP (which would paradigms Berezovksy, exiled in London and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, in prison on charges of tax evasion and fraud against the State) and its replacement by individuals of proven loyalty to his person, not political whims and the only goal of quick profit.
Subsequently, silencing the voices and dissident media by stage fright, economic asphyxiation, the introduction of arbitrary files for tax offenses and speedy, Putin would have gotten the disappearance of the opposition’s own democratic countries and the establishment of the ruling : political doctrine that combines the expansionist ideas of Russian nationalism, the blessings of the powerful Orthodox Church, the priceless services of the FSB (successor to the KGB), the lush monetary liquidity achieved by energy companies (Gazprom) and part of the ideology symbolized jruschoviano autocratic personal power trying to gather in his person the Head of State and the Presidency of the Party.

Starting the end of his mandate: However, the reforms to streamline the bureaucracy coupled with reducing the power of regional governors (the ruling party, United Russia, have decided not to nominate for reelection to the current governor of Kaliningrad), the worsening economic crisis because the collapse in oil prices and excessive dependence on oil and gas exports (70% of revenues come from these pathways), the devaluation of the ruble (30% since the beginning of the crisis) and the dreadful fires that have consumed 1 million hectares of forest, have diminished the popularity of Putin, Russian society that considers primary responsibility to approve the State Duma in 2006 the Forest Code, a law that dissolved the centralized management of forest protection, reducing the powers of Forestry Agency. and giving responsibility for the protection of forests tenant companies and local governments, have argued that lack of funds to control territory equivalent to twice the EU (809 million hectares).,
Putin, in particular "annus horribilis", must deal with the unprecedented drought that has affected the western part of Russia since early July and would have caused 20% of its 10 million hectares. of farmland have been ruined by drought (the estimates of the wheat crop would be 60-65 million tonnes, rather than the annual average of 90 million, according to RIA Novosti), and the subsequent embargo on exports wheat in the year 2010 (Russia is one of the world’s granaries with 8% of world production of wheat and in 2009 exported 21.4 million tons).
Such measures may be insufficient and require massive grain imports to prevent starvation in the winter, with consequent increases in commodity prices (according to Russian news agency Interfax, the country could face a shortage of certain food products and higher spiraling prices, which could rise to 60%), resulting in a runaway inflation close to double digits in 2010.
This will lead to the exacerbation of social divisions to be large sections of the population forced to live in poverty line and depend on social benefits (30% of the population), must spend large parts of the reserves to address the rampant Deficit Plan Pension and accelerate the planned reduction in bureaucracy and are thus diluted the beneficial effects of its objectives of promoting the Housing and Public Health, Reducing Taxes and Demographic Change in trend which suffers from a negative growth since 1991 (-12 million inhabitants), suffering the "sui generis" a severe cutback in Russian democracy and freedoms may reissued the riots and protests occurred with Khrushchev due to the high cost of living.

Risk of a "coup de main" of the Russian ruling against Putin before the presidential elections of 2012: The failures in the economic and consequent social protests. could do so unpopular in the party and weaken the administration and Putin’s former absolute power, allowing them to forge a conspiracy defenestrated encouraged by Putin’s oligarchs and forced into exile abroad and that the executive arm would the FSB and accused of the same charges with which decapitated the oligarchic clique (abuse of power, corruption and tax offenses) and was replaced probably by Mendeiev. (Reliving the coup against Khrushchev in 1964 hand and Leoniv sutitución by Brezhnev after being accused of cult of personality and policy mistakes.)
Thus, Putin and Khrushchev would be twinned and go down in history as two iconoclasts who have finished with the legacies of the trap Stalin (Khrushchev’s historic speech in 1956 at the XX CPSU Congress denouncing the crimes and mistakes of the Stalin era, worship the personality and ideological dogmatism) and cirrhotic Yeltsin (devastating defection of Yeltsin by Putin, accusing him of dismembering the former USSR) and as creators of new ideologies which would include the possibility of revolution by peaceful means (Stalinization) and pragmatism and the rapprochement with the West (official), coupled with the clear objective to match the U.S. as world superpower, daughter of the expansionist ideals of Peter the Great.
If finally buttoned politically, may see the reappearance of the Troika to avoid the accumulation of autocratic power and the return of the Brezhnev Doctrine (also called doctrine of limited sovereignty), which established doctrine that Russia has the right to intervene ( even militarily) in the internal affairs of countries in its area of influence and skillfully combining ethnic Russian minority outreach oppressed energy blackmail, the threat of nuclear deterrence, surgical military intervention, the destabilization of neighboring governments "non grata" and the drowning of domestic political opposition will try to bring under its orbit to the majority of countries broken off from the former USSR and to build the New Great Russia on the horizon of 2020.

GORRAIZ GERMÁN -POLITICAL ANALYST